Civil War

One hundred and fifty years ago this month the American Civil War started and four years later ended. It was the  first modern and total war and cost 2% of the American population in lives alone. By to days standards that represents over five and a half million men. I say total war because it also involved for the first time, the destruction of the civil populations infrastructure when Sherman's soldiers raped and pillaged and burned cities and farms, on his march to the sea. In the beginning Europe looked on, but when Lea started winning battles, Palmeston, the then Prime-minister of England, together with France considered recognising the Confederacy. However, when Grant also started winning battles they decided to do nothing of the sort. Had they done so I am sure it would have prolonged the war and been even more costly in lives. 150 years ago it was the right thing for Europe to do, to sit and watch and await developments.

Do we ever learn the lessons of history? Today Europe is involved in the Civil War in Libya. The Prime-ministers of England and France are active participants here, but I feel they have not understood the nature of the conflict, which is a true civil war as it is between the western coastal tribes and the internal tribes which support Gaddafi. The Europeans and the Americans have never really ever understood the concepts of tribalism, as history has shown. Or else why are we involved in Iraq and in Afghanistan? These leaders want regime change and think they can bring it about by bombing. Bombing nations into submission was tried by Hitler against England's cities and failed and also by Bomber Harris against German cities and failed. Both only caused wanton destruction and needless bloodshed. Bombing alone has never won wars, only ground forces can win wars. Without Forward Air Controllers (FAC) on the ground in the front line between the forces in the conflict, to coordinate and direct the bombing, it will not be successful.

That Gaddafi is an evil despot who is clinging to power, and that his days are numbered goes without saying. But by getting involved in another nations civil war will only prolong the conflict and add further fuel to the fire of the hatred of some Muslim extremists towards Europe. America has perhaps understood this, or else why is she trying hard not to get further involved and hoping NATO will solve the problem and that NATO should get the flack when it comes, as it will.

What Europe and America has not understood about the uprisings in Arabia, is that it is not all about democracy. It is about young intelligent people, across the tribal system, seeing the corruption in their countries and wanting to change it, but more than that, they want the freedom to work, to feed and clothe their families. These young people have all been infected with the thought  "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." This may not mean that they will have democracy as we know it, in the future, but it will mean they will be come a freer fairer nation. Of course we must support them in getting there, but that does not mean we should get embroiled in their civil wars.

Happy Easter

The Arab Revolt 2011

The manner in which the many Arab nations are revolting against the tyranny and repression of their various regimes in, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya is as encouraging as it is frightening. I remarked in an earlier post (see Egypt) how I feared for friends in Cairo. Here I am pleased to report that they are all well, but it is their future which worries me.

No Arab nation has hitherto had a democratic form of government. In Iran for example where in 1979 the people overthrew a dictatorial monarch, they ended up with an even worse and more blood thirsty Islamic Revolution. In Algeria, some 20 odd years ago, when the Islamists won a democratic election pledging to abolish democracy, the army stepped in to stop it and plunged Algeria into a bloody conflict which lasted some 10 years.

More recently in Palestine in 2005 when Hamas won a decisive election and took control of Gaza, they got rid of all opposition and have not bothered to hold free elections since. So what form of governments can we expect to replace the current ones in Arabia? In most of these countries there are no effective opposition parties.The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is banned, and yet if they are permitted to take part in an election are likely to win it. A secular liberal government is unlikely to emerge if they do. Already the interim rulers in Egypt have established contact with Iran and allowed the Iranian Navy to transit the Suez Canal for the first time in 30 years!

To my mind only Jordan could emerge with a proper democratic and secular government, but then only if King Abdullah follows the example of King Juan Carlos of Spain, who in 1981 defeated an attempted military coup and gave Spain a true democratic government. King Abdullah will need to oversee and manage the process himself, or else he might find himself being deposed as well. 

The Umayyad Mosque Damascus

There is only one Muslim nation with a more or less secular government and that is Turkey. I would wish that the USA and the EU encourage Turkey to lead here and help these Arab nations in establishing political parties as well as free and fair elections, for they are more likely to listen to advice from another Muslim nation, than they are to the USA or the EU. It is important that these nations do something to help and not just sit on the side lines and watch developments. The Allies after the Second World War supervised the democratization of Germany and Japan. A success story. During the French and Russian Revolutions the world sat and watched both countries disintegrate into a blood bath. The former led also to the rise of Napoleon and War in Europe which lasted years, the latter was even more bloody and led to the formation of the Soviet Union and the Cold War which lasted over 60 years.

That the youth of Arabia through their access to the Internet and Facebook et al, are leading the way does not mean it will end well if we do nothing. Any revolution is a magnet to youth in the beginning, but they are susceptible to being used and abused by unscrupulous people hungry for power for themselves. Turkey and the rest of the world must do all they can to encourage and help good leadership to emerge and to supervise free and fair elections.

Any new birth is painful and what will emerge in these Arab states is unclear, but it is our duty to encourage and help the development of all new nations, just as we do our children.